The good that AAP has already done:
- Hope: It has given India hope. That things can change. That we are not victims of the system
- An alternative: They have given the voters an alternative. This is a welcome relief from the "Which out of the 2 devils should we vote for?" dilemma. This desperation has been evident in the proliferation of factional parties and subsequently the growth of the 'coalition' culture. Coalitions are always an inevitable outcome of voters' helplessness, than politician's selfishness(as is commonly believed).Coalitions are always an inevitable outcome of voters' helplessness, than politician's selfishness
- Minimize the 'Neta culture': They will change the 'Neta culture' for good. The eliminations of Laal-battis, unnecessary security, car brigades and other 'Vulgar displays of power' have an immense intangible impact. It changes the 'bare minimum' expectations in a world where they have been taken for granted. The mantra has always been: What good is 'power' if you cannot flaunt it immediately? The abuse of discretionary powers for personal benefit comes later. AAP will force the power-mongers to change.
- Voluntary Transparency: They have shown that transparency and other good things can be adopted without a law to force you to do it. While other parties hide behind a 'Bring in a law and we will respect it' excuse to transparency, AAP has gone ahead and uploaded their campaign funding details on their website anyway. In short, the law might stop you from doing bad things; but it does not stop you from doing good things. AAP itself has not advertised this transparency factor ostentatiously enough, perhaps because it comes too naturally to them. And that is what the other political parties might happily do without: Discretionary goodness.
- Good intentions: Good intentions though hugely over-estimated, are surely a necessary starting point. The mistake is not in having them, but failing to see their pointlessness if they cannot be realized.
Potential risks and mitigations:
- No confidence motion: AAP has bungled up in going for an informal election already. Smacks of indecisiveness. When it (counter)blames Congress and BJP for the instability, it shows even more lack of ownership and understanding of the people's verdict: They thought AAP was good, but not good enough for a majority. Now they have to work with what they have - not try to change it. They have taken a smart approach in declaring that their generic (and childish) 'Sab chor hain!!' accusations are directed at parties, not individuals. And that their doors are open to all individuals who support their 'issues' regardless of which party they come from. This brings in another much wanted culture change: To make India's politics issue based, rather than 'Which side are you on?' based. Even if AAP fails, the culture change might stick around longer. Interestingly AAP needs to be aware of this more than the others(as stated in the next point) Mitigation: Stick to this strategy, but articulate it louder and clearer. So that its unfamiliarity to the listeners, does not get mistaken for lack of clarity. Either way, a re-election will get them the majority they need.
- Misinterpreting growth of party for growth of cause: A consistent message underlying the Anna and the AAP campaigns is the self-righteousness. The "Our side or the dark side" approach. Quite immature, but true. Now that they have won an election, people of all shapes and sizes..and intentions will flock to join them. Not because AAP is on the right side, but on the winning side. AAP, and especially Kejriwal needs to be be careful about their inductions. He might not be hungry for power, but the new joinees might. Understanding that changed side does not indicate changed intentions is important, because right now, AAP now has what the 'bad' folks always wanted: Victory, and hence power. Mitigation: Drop the egoistic converse of "Our side or dark side" i.e. "If they are on our side, then they are right". Validate intentions by verifying support for issues, not for the party.
- Risk of sabotage: AAP has put foward a 'We will save the world' manifesto. Optimistically, they might even have a realistic plan to achieve it. But the powers-that-were will be united in sabotaging this. One common way is to burden the party with new demands, allegations eg. The DTC demands might just be a conspiracy. AAP's "world savior" mentality will make it difficult to say 'no' to anybody. This will dilute their focus from their manifesto items. Then the Congress, BJP get together to celebrate AAP's failure to fulfill its promises. Mitigation: Accept that they cannot "save the world". Especailly a divided world that is basically structured in a way where pleasing somebody, by definition, means displeasing someone else. Be ready to be called the "Bad guy". Have a thick skin. Prioritize. And then be open about them. Prioritizing is a need, not a wish. Reacting to allegations is a luxury AAP had before they had the power and responsibility to do real work.
- Risk of failure in delivery: This is most important,as it is directly linked to accountability - which AAP has shown a great affinity for; but not had the chance or need to demonstrate. AAP will fail in some of its promises no matter how great their intentions are, how concrete their plans are. Many of these failures might be due to lack of support from the center, or AAP's own miscalculations. If they say "We tried to, but the corrupt did not allow us to" - they would be escaping from the very purpose to come into power: To take charge. If they say "We wanted to, but Congress did not let us" - they would be mouthing the same excuse Congress, BJP mouthed during the FDI retail, or Lokpal bill proposals. Mitigation: Accept they you cannot do everything. And that it is ok to fail. People are OK to forgive some failures, if you yourself are. Focus on what you can do, and how you can do it; rather than why you could not do something. Then be accountable for them. Accept responsibility for failures. the good news is: Their good intentions, if accompanied by focus(despite the sabotage attempts) will surely help them achieve most of their promises, if not all. Another good way will be to pick up the most important items, put timelines to it and report progress on their website. AAP has been the beacon of transparency. This will make them the beacon of accountability.
- Risk of failure in intentions: This is the biggest and scariest risk for the AAP. They have identified with their ideals too much. They have to realize that their intentions are perfect, but they are imperfect human beings. And as the party grows, so will the imperfections. Efforts to prove themselves perfect will back fire and also dilute their focus on necessities. Mitigation: Stick to the issue based approach. Dissociate from ideologies, perfectionism, morality. This will allow them to save themselves from situations where one bad egg tarnishes the entire party. Something they have done freely to the Congress and BJP. Failure to do this will set up unrealistic and stupid expectations, and subsequently invite demands for Kejriwal's resignations every time somebody sneezes. The aim is to penalize the person, not the cause - and move on.
AAP has given the people hope. But the real work begins now. Kejriwal surely realizes this. But they risk becoming victims of their own self-righteousness - which they could afford to abuse until now. Real humility lies not in rejecting perks or in riding a metro(in fact that is another way to prove moral superiority), but in accepting mistakes when they are made. Especially when you have already used them to your advantage in the past. Idealism is about achieving perfection, wisdom is realizing there is no such thing called 'perfection' and reality is about making the best out of imperfections. Kejriwal's real test of integrity will come not when he does the 'cute' things, but when he is caught committing a genuine mistake. Committing a mistake is natural. Wasting time trying to defend them is precious time lost in minimizing the damage. Here's wishing the AAP all the very best in realizing their good intentions!!
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